A survey conducted by Geopolitics Survey International, a polling firm, on the forthcoming gubernatorial election in Osun State has predicted a victory for Governor Ademola Adeleke.
The month-long survey conducted between June 01 to 30, across the nine federal constituencies in the state, found that public support has shifted towards the re-election of the governor ahead of the August 15 poll.
The state Project Manager for Osun 2026, Dr Adefemi Aderanti, in a statement on Monday, said the survey was conducted to assess the impact of the recent political violence on the public approval ratings of the governorship candidates.
Aderanti stated that “80 per cent of the respondents attributed responsibility for the recent political violence to the All Progressives Congress”.
According to the survey, 82 per cent of respondents indicated that they would support the Accord Party in the forthcoming election, citing the recent political violence as a significant factor influencing their preference.
The firm also reported that 85 per cent of those surveyed believe the Nigeria Police Force exhibited partisanship and bias in its handling of the series of political attacks recorded across the state.
“Respondents were asked three questions: which party or candidate should be held accountable for the violence, who they would vote for following the incidents, and whether they believed the police had acted impartially,” the firm noted.
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It noted that the results point to a significant decline in public perception of the Osun APC.
“The survey indicates a significant decline in the public perception of the Osun APC, largely due to respondents’ perception of its involvement in the recent political violence that affected parts of the state,” Dr Aderanti said.
“Our analysis also suggests that the incumbent Governor, Ademola Adeleke, and the Accord Party have recorded increased public support, with many respondents viewing them as victims of the violence”.
“The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The firm has commenced preparations for a comprehensive pre-election opinion poll to assess likely voting preferences, with findings scheduled for release on August 8, 2026, a few days before the election,” the statement concluded.
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